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Economic Forum



The Economic Forum is a site for business economists and think-tank members to broadcast their analyses on economies around the world, especially Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland, for open viewing. It is a channel to promote understanding of the global economy among institutions and the general public worldwide.

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March 2010

  
1.
 Mainland China's Economy Facing Short- and Long-Term Challenges - Hang Seng Bank
In this year's government work report, Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to achieve an 8% growth for the economy and contain inflation at below 3% in 2010. He also set money supply M2 and new loan targets of 17% and RMB7.5 trillion respectively...
9 March 2010
2.
 China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) – Implications for Hong Kong’s Merchandise Exports - Hong Kong Trade Development Council
In January 2010, China and ASEAN completed the formation of CAFTA to establish the world’s largest free trade area (FTA) by population and third largest FTA by combined GDP. After entirely phasing in the 5-year tariff reduction schedule for goods on the normal track, around 7,000 items traded between China and ASEAN are now zero-rated....
8 March 2010
3.
 Global Market Intelligence - Hang Seng Bank
The spectre of Greece defaulting on its sovereign debt continued to hang over the currency market in the past two weeks. The euro fell on the possibility of default but rose when news emerged that Greece announced pay cuts...
8 March 2010
4.
 U.S. Equity Markets Positioned for Renewed Rally
FED Moves Closer to Unwinding of Stimulus - Charles Schwab, Hong Kong
U.S. stock market action has remained relatively choppy following the correction we saw at the beginning of February. Despite a strong earnings-reporting season, we saw markets pull back in a noticeable way—a development we believed was overdue....
3 March 2010
5.
 No Easy Exit - Standard Chartered Bank
During the first two months of this year, I have travelled extensively. In addition to the World Economic Forum's event in Davos, covered in this column last month (the mood was pessimistic last year, realistic this year, but we will have to wait until...
2 March 2010

February 2010

  
1.
 Obama's New Investment Tax - The Wall Street Journal Asia
The White House's new health-care proposal promises the "largest middle class tax cut for health care in history," which is a creative way of describing a vast taxpayer-subsidized insurance entitlement. Naturally, the fine print goes on to describe one of the largest tax increases for health care in history, too....
24 Feb 2010
2.
 Get Ready, Here China Inc. Comes - The Wall Street Journal Asia
China has captured the imagination of chief executives and major companies around the world. To date the focus has largely been on selling into the domestic market, locating production facilities there or sourcing from Chinese factories....
24 Feb 2010
3.
 Hong Kong 2010/11 Budget: More One-Off Measures on Offer - Hang Seng Bank
The liquidity-fuelled asset market rally contributed to higher-than-expected revenue from stamp duties, turning the 2009/10 budget into a surplus of HKD13.8 billion, or 0.8% of GDP, from an initial estimate of a deficit of HKD39.9 billion....
24 Feb 2010
4.
 Global Market Intelligence - Hang Seng Bank
The US dollar maintained a strong tone in the past two weeks mainly on risk aversion flows as market focused on the state of public finances among European countries, fearing a possibility of Greece defaulting on its debts. The European Union seemed to have...
22 Feb 2010
5.
 Recent Correction In U.S. Equity Markets Is Unlikely To Signal Market Peak - Charles Schwab, Hong Kong
The latest correction in the U.S. stock markets erased excessive optimism, which signals that a healthy "wall of worry" might have returned. Breadth and other technical action suggest this was just a correction within a cyclical bull market, not a major top....
18 Feb 2010
6.
 Obama's 2011 Budget Tax Hikes Contradict Focus on Job Creation - The Wall Street Journal Asia
President Obama has said his number one goal for 2010 is to create jobs, but the abundance of tax increases in his recently released 2011 budget contradict this objective. Higher taxes on businesses, upper-income taxpayers, and fossil fuels; an increased death tax; and new taxes to pay for health care would destroy jobs and slow economic recovery....
18 Feb 2010
7.
 The Hong Kong Economy: Review and Preview
A Scenario of Low Growth and High Inflation - Hang Seng Bank
The Hong Kong government is set to release its fourth quarter GDP report on February 24, but most of the recently-released data indicate that the local economy is likely to have resumed year-on-year expansion during the quarter...
8 Feb 2010
8.
 Global Market Intelligence - Hang Seng Bank
The US dollar has been gaining ground on the back of better than expected US economic reports as well as rising sovereign risk concerns....
8 Feb 2010
9.
 Mainland China Shifting to Monetary Tightening - Hang Seng Bank
Mainland China more than succeeded in its goal of achieving an annual growth of 8% (“protecting eight”) in the midst of a global recession. Real GDP growth accelerated to 10.7% in the last ...
4 Feb 2010
10.
 U.S. Equity Markets Likely to be Volatile in 2010, but Overall Signs are Positive for Markets and Economy - Charles Schwab, Hong Kong
The U.S. fourth-quarter earnings season has in many cases delivered better than expected results on both earnings and revenues. However, the market has failed to reward such results, and recently experienced a quick (and overdue) 5% correction amid increased volatility....
4 Feb 2010
11.
 The China Export Edge - The Wall Street Journal Asia
Productivity gains are so entrenched that a yuan revaluation won't send business elsewhere. Anyone pinning their hopes on a rapid revival in American manufacturing as a result of a revaluation of China's currency needs to meet Ben, the owner of a coastal Chinese shoe factory....
2 Feb 2010
12.
 The Road to a Sustainable Recovery - Standard Chartered Bank
While the banking debate between the pragmatists and the populists may have stolen most of the headlines, issues like avoiding regulatory overkill and premature tightening also figured prominently at Davos – and rightly so....
2 Feb 2010
13.
 Hong Kong Housing Market: No Bubble Yet - Hang Seng Bank
Underpinned by strong influx of liquidity, property prices climbed nearly 25% from the trough hit in December 2008, when the Hong Kong economy was mired in recession. Luxury home prices have surpassed the 1997-peak, and prices in the mass market have also been surging....
1 Feb 2010

January 2010

  
1.
 China's Economic Restructuring – New Challenges and Opportunities - Bank of China (Hong Kong)
With the implementation of a series of measures to sustain growth, the Chinese economy has successfully met the challenges posed by the global financial crisis in 2009. Economic growth began to reaccelerate in the second quarter and reached a high level...
31 Jan 2010
2.
 On the Road to Recovery: Assessment of 2009 Christmas Sales in Major Markets - Hong Kong Trade Development Council
Feedback from HKTDC’s branch offices indicated improvements in Christmas sales in most parts of the world against last season’s poor showing. Sales increased slightly in the US and the UK and surged on the Chinese mainland....
29 Jan 2010