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1. Light at the end of the tunnel
The world economy has certainly been given a massive push in the right direction through sizeable, sustained, and what looks like successful policy stimulus. The questions now being asked are, how sustainable is growth?
4 Nov 2009
2. A Flash of Lightning
Despite increased optimism that a recovery is taking hold, we see a growing risk that the US recovery will look like a flash of lightning – a bolt out of the blue driven by short-term stimulus and restocking. Even in Asia
6 Oct 2009
3. Rebalancing the global economy
A recovery is underway. It may appear strong in the next six months as policy feeds through, inventories are corrected, and confidence rises. But we should not be deceived by this V-shaped bounce. The global economy is not back to normal, and deep problems remain.
8 Sept 2009
4. Beware of Public-sector Risks
Although the current crisis has arguably already passed the worst point of panic, it is important to assess where the vulnerabilities still lie. The crisis was caused by three key factors: systemic failure in the financial system, an imbalanced global economy, and a failure to listen to the
9 July 2009
5. Growing Stronger from the Crisis
A profound change is underway in the world economy. The balance of economic and financial power is shifting from the West to the East. This shift could usher in a super cycle of strong sustained growth for those economies best positioned to succeed.
11 June 2009
6. Winter is over, spring is yet to come
There has been much talk of green shoots recently. In the West, it may be better to think of recent developments as the snow and ice melting, whereas in parts of Asia, there may be more genuine signs of green shoots
14 May 2009
7. The Great Recession
This is not a Great Depression. But it has been called a Great Recession. How great remains to be seen. It certainly is a deep crisis, the outcome of which will depend on the fundamentals, the policy response, and confidence.
9 April 2009
8. All eyes on London Summit
The London Summit at the beginning of April is already attracting attention as the world looks for leadership in pulling it out of the economic and financial crisis. In one respect, the fact that there is a London Summit is a positive in itself.
12 March 2009
9. Risks Abound Ahead
"Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." These words, used in the recent Bourne Identity film, seem particularly relevant as we survey the immediate economic and financial outlook. The excesses of previous years, both in economic and in financial terms, are still working their way through the system.
12 Feb 2009
10. Rebalancing Global Imbalances
The world economy is in bad shape. 2008 was the year of financial crisis. 2009 will be a year of global recession. And 2010 is likely to be a year of recovery in the East and stagnation in the West. But for now, 2010 seems like a long way off.
15 Jan 2009
11. Outlook for 2009
How bad will it be in 2009, and will there be a recovery in 2010? These are the big issues as one looks at the year ahead. The boom of recent years seems like a distant memory, with the world economy slowing significantly through 2008, and appearing to fall off the edge of a cliff in the last few months.
19 Dec 2008
12. West in Crisis, East in Cyclical Setback
It is important to stress how much this is a Western financial crisis. Yes, there will be a global impact, but the likelihood is that many emerging economies - particularly those across East Asia and in parts of the Middle East - will be in a position to rebound sooner and stronger than their counterparts in the West.
13 Nov 2008
13. Asia: Braving Crisis
Asian economies could sustain substantial damage from the current global credit crisis, but the downside is manageable. For now, the most urgent task is to safeguard the banks and improve money market liquidity.
16 Oct 2008
14. Markets in Crisis, but not Meltdown
Lehman filing for bankruptcy, Bank of America buying Merrill, and the nationalisation of AIG all provide further evidence of how severe this financial crisis is. And this is only one week after the effective nationalisation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
18 Sept 2008
15. The World is Split
The credit crisis started a year ago has still got some way to run. There is not likely to be any let up in the near term and we have, as yet, not seen the full impact of deteriorating credit card and other consumer debt.
14 Aug 2008
16. Global Focus: Welcome to Our World
India's saving and investment levels are rising towards China's. India's response to inflation has so far been slightly less effective than China's. Near-term risks are clearly rising in both, but the fundamentals remain excellent.
10 July 2008
17. Global Focus: The Challenges of Inflation
Across the emerging world, rising food and energy prices are forcing many central banks to tighten policy. Some believe it also makes a case for higher rates in the US. But two wrongs do not make a right
12 June 2008
18. Global Focus: Monthly analysis of economic and financial market developments
Many asset markets have stabilised recently, but we believe we are at the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.In the next phase, negative credit and wealth effects will drive banks and households to de-leverage further. There is likely to be a long US downturn because US consumers will take time to rebuild balance sheets
22 May 2008
19. Global Focus: Monthly Analysis of Asian, African, Middle Eastern Economies
We stick with our view about a US recession and a China slowdown this year
17 April 2008
20. Global Focus: Monthly Analysis of Asian, African, Middle Eastern Economies
The US credit crisis is rapidly spilling over from sub-prime to Alt-A, and to other credit markets...
1 March 2008
 
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