On 3 May, the Bush administration released a plan outlining more than 300 actions to be taken by the federal government to address the threat of a bird flu or other influenza pandemic. Trade-related topics covered by the plan include international efforts, transportation and borders and continuity of operations.
The plan indicates that the response to a pandemic would likely have a significant effect on the movement of people across borders. The plan states that the U.S. is likely to limit the number of airports accepting international flights early in a pandemic but says that policies affecting land and maritime ports of entry have yet to be developed. One possibility would be the complete closure of U.S. borders; such a step would be difficult to enforce, present foreign affairs complications, disrupt substantial cross-border commerce and have a "devastating economic impact," but it might also delay the spread of the disease long enough to allow the production and distribution of medicine. Estimates indicate that, in the absence of any border restrictions, cases of pandemic influenza would likely arrive in the U.S. within one to two months after the initial outbreak. If tight border restrictions are enforced, the migration of the pandemic virus into U.S. territory would be delayed by a few weeks. Alternatives to complete border closure include targeted traveller restrictions to help contain the disease at its source and the implementation of layered, risk-based measures, including pre-departure, en route and arrival screening and/or quarantine.
The plan recognises that there is little benefit to trade restrictions if there are adequate measures in place to limit exposure to infected individuals and potentially contaminated surfaces. In fact, the plan notes that the risk of influenza transmission by cargo or trade goods, excluding live avian or animal cargo, is low and that cargo shipments could continue if appropriate measures are implemented. Ship-borne cargo poses the lowest risk because viable influenza viruses may remain on surfaces for a maximum of 48 hours.
In addition, the development of prevention measures/protocols that provide protection against the infection of workers in specific settings (e.g., those who handle/inspect cargo) would allow cargo traffic to and from the United States to continue and thus mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic. Such measures could include confining crews to their vessels and strictly monitoring port personnel during loading and offloading operations. Given the greater speed of air transport, additional measures may be needed to protect workers or to disinfect and/or isolate air cargo. The plan urges federal, state and local governments and the private sector to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of transportation and travel measures - including their ability to delay the pandemic, the associated social and economic consequences and the operational feasibility of implementation - when developing their response plans.
The plan also outlines the roles and responsibilities of various federal agencies in planning for and responding to a pandemic. The DHS would be the lead agency for most efforts, with varying levels of involvement from other departments and agencies. The more relevant planning expectations across the transportation and border sector are outlined below.
Preparedness and Communication
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The DHS and the Department of Transportation (DOT) must establish within six months an inter-agency transportation and border preparedness working group, which will include the Departments of State, Health and Human Services (HHS), Agriculture, Defense, Labor and Commerce. This group will develop planning assumptions for the transportation and border sectors, co-ordinate preparedness activities by mode and review products and their distribution.
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DHS and HHS, in co-ordination with other agencies and key stakeholders, must establish within six months an inter-agency modelling group to examine the domestic effects and international implications of transportation and border decisions.
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Within 12 months, DHS and DOT will lead an effort in co-ordination with other agencies to assess the government's ability to maintain critical federal transportation and border services during a pandemic and to revise contingency plans accordingly. These agencies will also develop detailed operational plans and protocols to respond to potential pandemic-related scenarios, including inbound aircraft/vessel/land border traffic with suspected case(s) of influenza.
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HHS and others must develop and disseminate within 12 months guidelines and timeframes for the decontamination of transportation and border assets and facilities (e.g., trains, lorries, stations).
Surveillance and Detection
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Within six months, DHS must tailor existing automated screening programmes and extended border programmes to increase scrutiny of travellers and cargo based on potential risk factors (e.g., shipment from or travelling through areas with pandemic outbreaks).?/font>
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DHS, HHS and others must develop within 12 months vessel, aircraft and lorry cargo protocols to support safe loading and unloading of cargo while preventing flu transmission to crew or shore-side personnel.
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DHS and other public and private entities will develop within 10 months aviation, land border and maritime entry and exit protocols and/or screening protocols, as well as educational materials for front-line screeners and officers to identify potentially infected persons or cargo.
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USDA will co-ordinate within six months a process to enhance protocols at air, land and sea ports of entry to identify and contain animals, animal products and/or cargo that may harbour viruses with pandemic potential, and will review procedures to quickly impose restrictions.
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DHS, HHS and DOT will work with other agencies to develop within eight months policy guidelines for international and domestic travel restrictions during a pandemic, taking into account economic impacts, international implications and operational feasibility.
Response and Containment
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DHS will quickly provide countries with guidance to increase scrutiny of cargo and other imported items through existing programmes, such as CSI, and impose country-based restrictions or item-specific embargoes. Such guidance is expected to be provided within 24 hours upon notification of an outbreak.
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DHS, in co-ordination with federal, state and local authorities and private sector entities, will rapidly implement screening protocols at U.S. ports of entry based on disease characteristics and availability of rapid detection methods and equipment. Such screening protocols are expected to be implemented within 48 hours upon notification of an outbreak.
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DHS and DOT will consider activating plans to selectively limit or deny entry to U.S. airspace, territorial seas, and ports of entry - including airports, seaports and land border ports - and/or restrict domestic transportation based on risk, public health benefits and economic impacts.
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DHS and others will rapidly implement and enforce cargo restrictions for exports or imports of potentially contaminated cargo, including embargo of live birds, and notify international partners/shippers. This measure is expected to be enforced within six hours after a decision to do so has been taken.
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DOT, in support of DHS, will work closely with the private sector and state and local authorities to restore the transportation system, including decontamination and reprioritisation of essential commodity shipments.
