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Real estate sector digging itself out from under. |
The worldwide financial crisis and credit crunch provided a real challenge to Germany's Expo Real 2009. The 12th International Commercial Property Exposition which took place in Munich showed a decline in attendance of around 15% to 21,000 visitors.
In addition, some 14,750 exhibitors took part, fewer than last year, which saw an all-time aggregate high for this event.
Expo Real was very much focused on the Western European markets together with the US, Russia, the Czech Republic and Luxembourg, which provided the majority of visitors. Turkey had its biggest delegation to date.
There were only a few outstanding new projects to be seen at the Expo from 5 to 7 October, but the event continues to be Europe's largest commercial property trade fair.
Although the real estate market still hasn't bottomed out there are distinct signs of recovery, which should please Hong Kong's international architecture, building and construction companies. The trick is to size up opportunities, which may be hard to discern among sectoral declines.
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| Few new projects: Barcelona's Parc de l'Alba. |
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de Haan: never catch a falling knife. |
"If you stick to the rule 'never catch a falling knife', you can't buy [or develop]. The prices are still falling and it is too early for grabbing bargains," said Arnold de Haan, Principal and Vice Chairman of the Netherlands-based Meyer Bergman.
Many experts however point to niche and specialist markets. For example, the transaction volumes in the London, UK districts of the West End, City and Docklands for Q3 hit Euros1.7 billion according to UK real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield, up 110% from the first quarter 2009.
According to figures released by London-based DTZ, European commercial real estate volumes jumped 30% in Q3 to Euros13.8 billion.
One of the biggest deals was the asset management firm Blackstone's purchase of 50% of fellow UK firm Broadgate Estates for Euros1.1 billion in September. But real estate company Jones Lang LaSalle's experts said: "investor interest remains focused mainly on prime, secure income-producing products and the market remains segmented into these very prime assets."
London and Paris are two of the European cities in which real estate companies are most interested. The announcement by Christian Sautter of the decision to build two million sqm of office space in Paris was followed closely by visitors.
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| Mood evaluation project for consultants. |
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Sautter looking for new hotels in Paris. |
Sautter is Deputy Mayor of Paris and Chairman of the Paris Development Agency. He was in Munich to find partners for the planned projects. "First priority for us is hotels. We want to build 7,000 new hotel rooms by 2020," Sautter said. But Paris does not just want to increase quantity. It desires a better standard of hotel.
According to Jones Lang LaSalle's International Capital Group experts, global investment transaction volumes netted just Euros51 billion for the first half of 2009.
The US experienced the largest decline - falling by 77% year-on-year. Japan has now surpassed the US and UK as the most active investor region with Euros10 billion worth of transactions in the first half of 2009. The US is a close second at Euros9 billion, followed by the UK with Euros7 billion.
Sustainable property market
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| Sustainability on the radar for large projects. |
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Sustainability was one of the key topics in Munich. Expo Real focused especially on sustainability during times of crisis and the changing priorities this brings about.
"Sustainability will not be the crucial point to convince investors, but it will make it easier," said Dr Georg Allendorf Head of RREEF Deutschland, Deutsche Bank's Alternative Asset Investment Manager.
Allendorf said now is the best time to invest, because the relative values of properties have increased over the past few months. This refers to the investment potential for returns in the ensuing three years.
RREEF is seeking to raise two core real estate recovery funds, one for the US and the other operating on a pan-European basis. According to Allendorf, each fund would likely be around Euros250 million.
"Interest in sustainability used to be largely confined to the academic world, but things are starting to change. Investors are becoming increasingly aware that by adopting an ecological approach, they are investing in the long term quality of their property portfolio - and that this strategy pays dividends," said Dr Reinhard Kutscher, Chairman of the Management Board for Union Investment.
Union Investment is contributing to the development of a sustainable building certification scheme as part of the German Sustainable Building Council (DGNB).
The company develops solutions in order to reduce the primary energy demand and minimise emissions not only for shopping centres but also for office buildings - as demonstrated by the new headquarters of ThyssenKrupp AG, which is currently under construction in Essen.
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| Union Investment stand. |
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Asset management and sustainability the focus. |
One of the key conclusions of several of the panel discussions that took place at Expo Real 2009 was the growing importance of a well-implemented asset management.
"As companies are forced to hold their property because they can't sell them, asset management becomes a key factor for profitability," Arnold de Haan said. As a result the European real estate industry will see a wave of asset management mandates exchanging hands in the coming months.
from special correspondent Silke Thole, Munich